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		<title>2013 Spring Market Update</title>
		<link>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2013/03/07/2013-spring-market-update/</link>
		<comments>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2013/03/07/2013-spring-market-update/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Mar 2013 21:00:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>LarryT</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Homebuyers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Local News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[30 year fixed rate mortgage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fixed rate mortgage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgage brokers association]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage loan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real estate pricing]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday i had the honor of speaking at the Triangle Mortgage Brokers Association luncheon along  with two other local Brokers Stacie Dye (Go Realty) and Jeanette Hussey (Fonville Morisey Realtors) The consensus was fairly unanimous there is a lack of inventory and it&#8217;s likely not going to change anytime soon. When compared to this time last year there is approximately a &#8230; <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2013/03/07/2013-spring-market-update/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com&#038;blog=7209929&#038;post=2571&#038;subd=nchomesbylarryt&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday i had the honor of speaking at the Triangle Mortgage Brokers Association luncheon along  with two other local Brokers Stacie Dye (Go Realty) and Jeanette Hussey (Fonville Morisey Realtors)</p>
<p>The consensus was fairly unanimous there is a lack of inventory and it&#8217;s likely not going to change anytime soon. When compared to this time last year there is approximately a 20% decrease in overall inventory (with some minor variation depending on specific price-points and location) and sales up roughly 10% when compared to the same period last year.</p>
<p>The Fed continues to buy roughly $45 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. The reason is clear, it&#8217;s an effort to raise home prices and they seem to be succeeding. Of course this does present the risk of another bubble. Let&#8217;s keep our fingers crossed.</p>
<p>Buyers are coming out and they should. A family that could afford a mortgage payment of $1000 per month in late 2008 when QE1 began and mortgage rates averaged roughly 6% could qualify for a mortgage of $165,000. Now this family&#8217;s same $1,000 qualifies them from a mortgage of $222,000 or roughly 34% more. Now I make no claims to be prescient, but when you look at the data below and read between the lines in the news it seems apparent mortgage rates will be going up and I believe buyers realize this and are wisely acting. The median 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest:</p>
<p>Over the past 40 years &#8211; 8.15%</p>
<p>Over the past 30 years &#8211; 7.45%</p>
<p>Over the past 20 years &#8211; 6.52%</p>
<p>Over the past 10 years &#8211; 5.72%</p>
<p>Currently in the range of &#8211; 3.675% and were I a gambling man I&#8217;d bet money that a year from now it will be at least one percent higher and possibly more. It&#8217;s already up roughly .5% from the beginning of the year.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re looking to buy or sell real estate here in Durham, Orange, Chatham or western Wake county, feel free to give me a call or send me an email, I&#8217;d be happy to hear from you.</p>
<h6 class="zemanta-related-title" style="font-size:1em;">Related articles</h6>
<ul class="zemanta-article-ul">
<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/3/prweb10498668.htm" target="_blank">Is Housing Market Springing Back? Hobbs and Ryan Forecast Thawing</a> (prweb.com)</li>
<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><span style="color:#0000ff;"><a title="Spring 2013 Are We in a Sellers or Buyers Market here in “the Triangle?”" href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2013/02/28/spring-2013-are-we-in-a-sellers-or-buyers-market-here-in-the-triangle/"><span style="color:#0000ff;">Spring 2013 Are we in a sellers or Buyers Market here in &#8220;The Triangle&#8221;</span></a></span> (www.NCHomesbyLarryT.com)</li>
<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/02/12/2674448/triangle-home-sales-up-33-percent.html" target="_blank">Triangle home sales up 33 percent as inventory dwindles</a> (newsobserver.com)</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Spring 2013 Are We in a Sellers or Buyers Market here in &#8220;the Triangle?&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2013/02/28/spring-2013-are-we-in-a-sellers-or-buyers-market-here-in-the-triangle/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Feb 2013 20:54:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>LarryT</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Homebuyers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Selling a home]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Duke Forest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Raleigh-Durham International Airport]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trinity park]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[This is a tricky question and the answer is we&#8217;re in both depending on exactly what area in the Triangle you&#8217;re focused on (Raleigh, Cary, Durham, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Pittsboro), what you&#8217;re looking for (Single Family Homes, Condos, Townhouses, Foreclosures, etc) and what price range you&#8217;re looking in. Certainly in the $150,000 &#8211; $300,000 range in most &#8230; <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2013/02/28/spring-2013-are-we-in-a-sellers-or-buyers-market-here-in-the-triangle/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com&#038;blog=7209929&#038;post=2540&#038;subd=nchomesbylarryt&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is a tricky question and the answer is we&#8217;re in both depending on exactly what area in the Triangle you&#8217;re focused on (Raleigh, Cary, Durham, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Pittsboro), what you&#8217;re looking for (Single Family Homes, Condos, Townhouses, Foreclosures, etc) and what price range you&#8217;re looking in.</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2008-07-30_RDU_welcome_sign.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="zemanta-img-inserted zemanta-img-configured" title="English: Welcome sign at the Lumley Rd entranc..." alt="English: Welcome sign at the Lumley Rd entranc..." src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/98/2008-07-30_RDU_welcome_sign.jpg/300px-2008-07-30_RDU_welcome_sign.jpg" width="300" height="200" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">English: Welcome sign at the Lumley Rd entrance to the Raleigh-Durham International Airport. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)</p></div>
<p>Certainly in the $150,000 &#8211; $300,000 range in most of the Triangle it&#8217;s either a neutral market or possibly favoring Sellers based on available inventory which I&#8217;m going to go into in a little more detail shortly. In parts of Raleigh, Cary, Durham, Chapel Hill in Carrboro, this is also true for the most part for single family homes between $300,000 &#8211; $500,000 though as you get above $400,000 in Durham depending on your location the market is still slightly favoring buyers; with the exception of Trinity Park, Duke Forest and the immediate surrounding areas.  For properties in the $500,000 &#8211; $750,000 range location, age, school districts and finish quality all play a significant role as to whether the market is favoring Sellers, Buyers or is neutral. Certainly in the outlying areas of the Triangle; such as Pittsboro and Hillsborough as well as for much of Durham this market is still inventory heavy and so favors Buyers. The good news is that prices seem to have generally firmed up though their still below the market highs of 2005/2006.  In the $1,000,000 plus range I&#8217;d have to say the market is still favoring buyers.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I believe that one of the things that has shifted the market back to where it&#8217;s either neutral (6 months+/- of inventory available) or tilted slightly towards the Seller (less than 6 months inventory on the market) is the lack of good inventory on the market.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I think it&#8217;s important to understand why there is this lower level of product in order to understand the market as a whole and so that Buyers and Sellers can plan accordingly.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>For 2012 as a while, the United States saw a 9% increas in total properties sold. Prices generally started to climb back up from where they were as in general inventory of available homes dropped roughly 21.5% from what it was in 2011. With prices rising the logical question is why aren&#8217;t there more homes for sale?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>To begin with according to CoreLogic Inc. roughly 22% of homeowners owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. Referred to as &#8220;Underwater&#8221; these homeowners aren&#8217;t likely to sell unless they have a very strong specific need to move, and despite what many wish to believe, they as Sellers won&#8217;t qualify for a short sale (in other words they have other assets they could liquidate) and without an attorney to assist them they&#8217;ll take a serious hit on the credit for pursuing a short sale.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Other group of sellers simply doesn&#8217;t have enough equity in their home to &#8220;trade up&#8221;. Traditionally homeowners counted on taking equity from the sale of their existing home to make the down payment on their next home. Without sufficient equity, these owners rightly realize that by the time they pay a Realtor to sell their home and pay off the mortgage, there&#8217;s not enough left to motivate them to sell.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>A third group of homeowners struggle with the idea that they may be selling when the market is still low. Of course they seem to forget that they&#8217;d be buying when the market was lower as well. In other words their goal is to Sell High and Buy Low which unless their moving into a completely different market is difficult to do. It&#8217;s a mental hurdle but it&#8217;s a real one nonetheless.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Investors aren&#8217;t buying and flipping the way they used to. Most of my investor clients have shifted their focus to buy, hold and rent. Even banks that have foreclosed are holding properties off the market choosing instead to rent them hoping to wait out the market. This is keeping homes that would ordinarily be available for sale out of the inventory &#8220;pool.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Banks after getting slammed with multiple lawsuits are having second thoughts about rushing to foreclosure which has certainly impacted the number of foreclosures coming to market. While this hasn&#8217;t been a huge part of our market it still did account for enough that the loss of these properties is noticeable.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Finally builders have been putting up considerably less &#8220;spec homes&#8221; for the simple reason that the lenders won&#8217;t let them. It&#8217;s a rare builder who has more than two spec houses up for sale. In the height of the market many had a dozen or more spec homes on the ground at any one time.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Overall lower inventory is in fact evidence that supply and demand economics is once again returning to the housing market here in the Triangle and this is critical in terms of establishing that our market has bottomed out and is once again firming up and showing signs of recovery.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve been asked to speak next week as one of three local Realtors at the Triangle Mortgage Lenders association on  market conditions and will update this post afterwards with additional data.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h6 class="zemanta-related-title" style="font-size:1em;">Related articles</h6>
<ul class="zemanta-article-ul">
<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/02/26/house-sellers-shortage/1947129/" target="_blank">Home sellers are scarce as spring buyers stir</a> (usatoday.com)</li>
<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://edshort.wordpress.com/2013/02/28/existing-home-sales-rise-as-home-inventory-shrinks-existing-home-sales-january-2013/" target="_blank">Existing Home Sales Rise As Home Inventory Shrinks</a> (edshort.wordpress.com)</li>
<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/02/12/2674448/triangle-home-sales-up-33-percent.html" target="_blank">Triangle home sales up 33 percent as inventory dwindles</a> (newsobserver.com)</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Economic Outlook “Triangle” Metro Area- November 2012</title>
		<link>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/11/08/economic-outlook-triangle-metro-area-november-2012/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Nov 2012 16:44:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>LarryT</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Durham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chapel Hill North Carolina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Carolina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Raleigh North Carolina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Triangle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unemployment levels]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[As leader of the NCHomesbyLarryT real estate team, it&#8217;s critical that I know not only have a detailed understanding and knowledge of the local real estate market, but also monitor the general economic trends affecting the local economy of Durham, Chapel Hill and Raleigh collectively referred to as “the Triangle or the Research Triangle.” to &#8230; <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/11/08/economic-outlook-triangle-metro-area-november-2012/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com&#038;blog=7209929&#038;post=2266&#038;subd=nchomesbylarryt&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As leader of the NCHomesbyLarryT real estate team, it&#8217;s critical that I know not only have a detailed understanding and knowledge of the local real estate market, but also monitor the general economic trends affecting the local economy of Durham, <a class="zem_slink" title="Chapel Hill" href="http://best-cities.findthebest.com/l/921/Chapel-Hill-town" target="_blank" rel="fdbtravel">Chapel Hill</a> and <a class="zem_slink" title="Raleigh" href="http://best-cities.findthebest.com/l/936/Raleigh" target="_blank" rel="fdbtravel">Raleigh</a> collectively referred to as “the Triangle or the Research Triangle.” to that end I&#8217;m constantly scouring a variety of industry specific sources.</p>
<p>Today I read over the Wells Fargo North Carolina Economic Outlook commentary produced by Mark Vitner (Senior Economist at Wells Fargo) and his staff. As might be expected they have a number of concerns for the State predominately concerning the Global economy and the upcoming challenges surrounding the resolution of our own homegrown “fiscal cliff.” <a href="http://www.nchomesbylarryt.com/shared/fs/0299/029900030/Wells_Fargo_Economic_Outlook_Raleigh_-_November_2012.pdf" target="_blank">{Wells Fargo Report}</a></p>
<p>Personally I&#8217;m confidant that there&#8217;s very little any of us can do personally in terms of solving the issues facing the Euro Zone and so there&#8217;s no use in expending too much energy considering it. As to the Global economy, I feel that the entire world is going through another cyclical “ economic revolution” similar to the changes that took place during the industrial revolution, which was followed by the technology revolution. Presently we&#8217;re in the midst of what I consider the post technological global industrial revolution, and for the most part I remain optimistic that the Unites States will not only find its way but will in fact be a highly successful player in the new world economy. On the matter of the “fiscal cliff” I expect that a solution will in fact be worked out that no one will particularly like which will indicate it&#8217;s actually the right solution as this indicates a successful compromise with neither side getting exactly what they wanted to the benefit of the country as a whole.</p>
<p>As I digested the report what struck me as significant was that here in the Triangle that unemployment was just a tad over 7.5%, below both state and national unemployment levels. That housing market has not only stabilized but has seen appreciation over the past 24 months. (Note the graph shown is specific to Raleigh only and other sources clearly indicate that parts of Wake, Durham and Orange Counties have actually seen better appreciation in values that indicated by the chart included in the Wells Fargo report) New housing starts are up and projected to continue climbing and most importantly that the local economy in the Triangle is expected to continue out performing both the state and country as a whole.</p>
<h6 class="zemanta-related-title" style="font-size:1em;">Related articles</h6>
<ul class="zemanta-article-ul">
<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/11/02/2457286/triangle-jobless-rate-falls-to.html" target="_blank">Triangle jobless rate falls to 7.6 percent</a> (newsobserver.com)</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Housing Outlook and the Economy</title>
		<link>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/11/02/housing-outlook-and-the-economy/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Nov 2012 17:51:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>LarryT</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[durham housing market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Durham Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[homes for sale in durham]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Finally &#8211; Economist are becoming believers!  With the recent reports from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), it is now crystal clear that home building is a leading source of economic growth for 2012.  In fact, all of the reports from the Homebuilder Association, the National Association of Realtors, The Federal Housing and Finance Agency &#8230; <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/11/02/housing-outlook-and-the-economy/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com&#038;blog=7209929&#038;post=2250&#038;subd=nchomesbylarryt&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align:left;"><a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/homes_in_durham.png"><img class="wp-image-2252 aligncenter" style="margin-top:6px;margin-bottom:6px;" title="homes for sale in_durham" alt="http://listings.realbird.com/Real_Estate/North-Durham-Home-in-Brogden-Estates/Durham/NC/K4D3T3K5/183525.aspx?tab=search" src="http://nchomesbylarryt.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/homes_in_durham.png?w=357&#038;h=199" height="199" width="357" /></a>Finally &#8211; Economist are becoming believers!  With the recent reports from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), it is now crystal clear that home building is a leading source of economic growth for 2012.  In fact, all of the reports from the Homebuilder Association, the National Association of Realtors, The Federal Housing and Finance Agency support the fact that the National Economy is improving, and as it improves, the National housing market is recovering too!</p>
<p><strong>How times have changed.</strong></p>
<p>As the overall economy slowed, housing generated a large share of the expansion. Home building and remodeling (residential) added 0.33 percentage points to the final tally of GDP growth, or 17% of the total.  Those are numbers that can&#8217;t be ignored.</p>
<p>Of the three primary elements of the housing sector (new home construction, remodeling and existing home sales), new home sales continue to experience the largest gains, increasing in September  5.7% to an annual rate of 389,000, the highest level since the home buyer tax credit expired in early 2010.</p>
<p>The three-month moving average of new home sales has increased steadily for more than a year as more housing markets begin to see rising home prices and improving consumer sentiment.<span id="more-2250"></span>The number of completed homes for sale <strong>and</strong> ready for immediate move-in remains at a record low of 38,000 as builders remain cautious about building ahead of the market and as credit access remains tight.</p>
<p>This information from the National Association of Homebuilders, is important to note, because the Homebuilder numbers include Apartment complexes.  This is why New Home starts are up &#8211; but Inventory is down.</p>
<p><strong>Existing homes sales</strong>, as reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), are up 11% from the same period a year ago. NAR reported that September  total existing home sales were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.75 million units combined for single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums and co-ops.</p>
<p>NAR reported 24% of September sales were <strong>distressed, defined as</strong> foreclosures and short sales sold at deep discounts. This level was down from 30% a year ago.</p>
<p><strong><a title="Buy or Rent?  Buying makes sense in Durham NC!" href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/09/10/home-ownership-matters-to-american-stability/" target="_blank">First-time home buyers</a> accounted for 32% of sales, according to NAR.</strong></p>
<p>Year over year, the Pending Home Sales Inventory has increased for 17 straight months &#8211; again good news for the Economy and good news for housing.  Further, there was more good news for housing prices. According to reports from the Federal Housing Finance Agency house prices increased nationally, so far in 2012, to 4.6% &#8211; after being essentially flat through 2011.</p>
<blockquote><p>With prices rising and new home construction increasing, housing is finally providing the boost to economic growth that the sector typically provided at the end of a recession. This did not occur at the end of the Great Recession due to historic price declines, excess inventories and pent-up housing demand associated with a weak labor market.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Why go through all of these numbers? </strong> To remind us that Real Estate Investing is LOCAL.  We tell folks that, &#8220;It&#8217;s not Sunny and 72 degrees across the Country &#8211; anymore than the<a title="Real Estate Prices" href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/10/06/real-estate-relativity-in-the-eye-and-wallet-of-the-beholder/" target="_blank"> cost of Real Estate</a>, and the Trends for homes in Durham will be the same as Detroit.&#8221;  These national reports are great &#8211; because it means that the National Economy is improving &#8211; but the reality is that the LOCAL Real Estate Market, homes for sale in Durham and Chapel Hill, have seen improvement <strong>ahead</strong> of the National Reports.</p>
<p>If you are considering the sale of a home, or you want to <a title="Great Neighborhood in Durham NC" href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/10/30/duke-forest-neighborhood-durham-nc/" target="_blank">buy a house in Durham</a>, or you are looking for a <a title="Southern Village Neighborhood in Chapel HIll NC" href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/11/01/southern-village-subdivision-in-chapel-hill/" target="_blank">great neighborhood in Chapel Hill</a> &#8211; now is a great time!  Call the Larry Tollen Team today!</p>
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		<title>Real Estate Relativity – In the Eye and Wallet of the Beholder!</title>
		<link>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/10/06/real-estate-relativity-in-the-eye-and-wallet-of-the-beholder/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Oct 2012 15:50:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>LarryT</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Duke Forest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[durham real estate market statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/?p=1818</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I couldn't help but look at and consider real estate prices in a variety of towns and cities we stopped in along the way. Doing so I was reminded of just how relative real estate values and prices are and how overall the values here in North Carolina specifically Chapel Hill, Durham, Hillsborough, Raleigh and the surrounding areas are still incredibly cheap for what we have to offer. <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/10/06/real-estate-relativity-in-the-eye-and-wallet-of-the-beholder/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com&#038;blog=7209929&#038;post=1818&#038;subd=nchomesbylarryt&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just recently my wife and I spent some time in Europe, visiting old friends from Durham now stationed in Paris and then on to Turin; Italy to visit with another Durham resident who was visiting her mother there, before heading out on our own to spend some time driving through much of Northern Italy as we visited Cremona, Florence, Sienna, and <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/duke-chapel-springtime.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2180" title="Duke Chapel Springtime" alt="Duke Chapel Springtime" src="http://nchomesbylarryt.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/duke-chapel-springtime.jpg?w=300&#038;h=225" height="225" width="300" /></a>finally Rome before heading home.</p>
<p>Given my penchant for real estate as well as an innate curiosity/nosiness, I couldn&#8217;t help but look at and consider real estate prices in a variety of towns and cities we stopped in along the way. Doing so I was reminded of just how relative real estate values and prices are and how overall the values here in North Carolina specifically Chapel Hill, Durham, Hillsborough, Raleigh and the surrounding areas are still incredibly cheap for what we have to offer.</p>
<p><span id="more-1818"></span>The prices I noted in Europe were honestly mind boggling (relative to what things cost here) In Paris and Rome $1000 per square foot bought you a decent (but not spectacular) location and the overall interior finish was hardly what I would have expected.</p>
<p><a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/duke-gardens.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-2181" title="Duke Gardens" alt="Duke Gardens" src="http://nchomesbylarryt.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/duke-gardens.jpg?w=225&#038;h=300" height="300" width="225" /></a>Even out in the countryside of northern Italy, the properties I saw being offered for sale started anywhere from $300 &#8211; $500 per square foot and when I commented to friends living there about my sticker shock I was told that in most instances the people living in these homes had either inherited them through their family or had likely purchased them many decades past.</p>
<p>This was a poignant reminder that value is definitely in the eye of the beholder and only through careful consideration and understanding a market on a truly “local” level can a home buyer make an informed decision.</p>
<p><a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/brightleaf-square.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2177" title="BrightLeaf Square" alt="" src="http://nchomesbylarryt.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/brightleaf-square.jpg?w=300&#038;h=225" height="225" width="300" /></a>When I first arrived here 8.5 years ago from Vermont I expected to be able to buy an awesome house for $150,000 &#8211; $200,000, it took me seeing all of 3 homes in Chapel Hill, NC to realize how unrealistic my expectations were. Not having young school age children, and actually wanting a larger city like atmosphere, I quickly switched my focus to Durham where even there I ultimately upped my price point to get the location, square footage, lot size and overall quality of construction I was looking for.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re interested &#8211; I ended up buying an older brick home in Duke Forest, just a mile or so from Duke Universities West Campus and 5 minutes or so from downtown. I love the convenience it offers me to countless art venues, restaurants, shopping, medical facilities, Chapel Hill etc. and while it was more than I was hoping to spend, it was more than worth it to me and I&#8217;ve no regrets. With more than twenty years of experience as a full time Realtor, I understand full well why the first three rules of real estate have and will continue to be, “<a class="zem_slink" title="Location, Location, Location" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location%2C_Location%2C_Location" target="_blank" rel="wikipedia">Location, Location, Location</a>.”</p>
<p>My sticker shock in Europe reminded me of how many of my buyer clients feel when first looking for real estate in the area. If their coming from the mid-west or central part of the country they typically feel like our prices are high, while those coming in from the East or West coast areas tend to feel like our prices are incredibly inexpensive. It simply a matter of relative perspective and a reminder to me to be certain to take the time to really explain the pros and cons of the many unique areas that make up the area know as “the Triangle” here in North Carolina.</p>
<h6 class="zemanta-related-title" style="font-size:1em;">Related articles</h6>
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<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://raleigharearealestateblog.wordpress.com/2012/08/03/great-information-about-living-in-downtown-raligh-real-estate-and-things-to-do-treeline-properties-and-realty-has-easy-real-estate-search/" target="_blank">Great information about Living in downtown Raligh, Real Estate and things to do. Treeline Properties and Realty has easy real estate search.</a> (raleigharearealestateblog.wordpress.com)</li>
</ul>
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		<title>AVM- Automated Real Estate Valuation – What&#8217;s behind Zillow, Trulia and Their “Estimates”</title>
		<link>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/03/19/avm-automated-real-estate-valuation-whats-behind-zillow-trulia-and-their-estimates/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2012 10:07:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>LarryT</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Homebuyers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market value]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Association of Realtors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real estate broker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real estate pricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trulia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zillow]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/?p=1570</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Understanding Online Real Estate Estimates of Value or AVM's. <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/03/19/avm-automated-real-estate-valuation-whats-behind-zillow-trulia-and-their-estimates/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com&#038;blog=7209929&#038;post=1570&#038;subd=nchomesbylarryt&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s start by stating the obvious: <a class="zem_slink" title="Zillow" href="http://zillow.com/" rel="homepage" target="_blank">Zillow</a>, <a class="zem_slink" title="Trulia" href="http://trulia.com/" rel="homepage" target="_blank">Trulia</a> and similar sites are not <a class="zem_slink" title="Real estate broker" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_broker" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">Realtor</a> sites per se. They are Internet sites and have no <a class="zem_slink" title="National Association of Realtors" href="http://www.realtor.org/" rel="homepage" target="_blank">Realtors</a> working for them. They don&#8217;t need to; it&#8217;s not what they do. They have Marketing, IT, Sales and other professionals working for them and use proprietary algorithms that sift through county tax records, compile statistics and then propose “estimates of value” which, in my opinion, are the least valuable of the service they offer consumers. Interesting tidbits of information but little more.</p>
<p>Studying tax records or the average <a class="zem_slink" title="Real estate pricing" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_pricing" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">price per square foot</a> of homes you may consider comparable is possibly good for determining a down-and-dirty range that a home might sell within, but even that’s prone to faulty analysis. In my opinion, it&#8217;s data without context.</p>
<p>Consider this fact: Zillow states that in my market (Chapel Hill – Durham &#8211; Raleigh) its “Zestimate” is within 20% of the actual sales price four out of five times. So on a $250,000 house Zillow is within $50,000 of the actual sales price only 80% of the time. The other 20% of the time they miss by more than this. I wonder how long they&#8217;d last in a place like Vegas with that record?</p>
<p>Without having personally seen each home that&#8217;s sold and only studying the numbers these online estimating programs fail to account for countless differences. For example: the lots. In every neighborhood not all lots are equal; some are more desirable or larger or offer some special feature. These algorithms also fail to consider the quality and condition of a home’s features: flooring type, kitchen updates, overall functionality, room sizes, whether the roof is old or new (and what kind it is), heating and air conditioning equipment, and so on. The algorithms don&#8217;t care if the bedroom is 9&#215;11 or 15&#215;14. A four bedroom, 2.5 bath home is the same in these “estimates.” (Though total square footage is given weight as are agent or owner inputted information which may or may not be totally accurate) There&#8217;s a long list of very important items that impact overall value missing when only studying average sales price per square foot or using tax record data.</p>
<p>Consider that it typically takes me several days when I&#8217;m asked to list a home to prepare a market analysis for the home. A lot of work that goes into making certain I use the right comps and adjust for differences, in much the same way an appraiser would.</p>
<p>My office brings in appraisers every year to talk with us about the values they use when making adjustments. Active Realtors have seen many of the homes we use in comps or we know exactly who we can speak with to get the detailed information we need to honestly compare two or more homes. The difference between a great Realtor and an average Realtor is always experience. Knowledge of the market, the products we offer and how to prepare a realistic, useful market analysis is critical.</p>
<p>Market analysis is also important when I&#8217;m wearing my Buyer Broker hat. I take time to do a good deal of analysis so that I can show my buyer clients what the <a class="zem_slink" title="Market value" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_value" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">true market value</a> of a particular property may be. In the past couple of years I&#8217;ve negotiated between 0-20% of the over 50 homes I&#8217;ve sold. The lower the discount the better the listing agent and owner did of pricing the property correctly. There&#8217;s no reason to overprice a home (though a significant majority always are). Overpricing always works against the seller. Of the 50 plus sales I mentioned earlier the average discount was between 4-7%.</p>
<p>Trulia, Zillow and other similar sites do have lots to offer: great trending analysis, forums where the public can interact with real agents and get questions answered both specific and general in nature. They provide easy access to lots of great information, though like everything else, there are limitations and that&#8217;s why ultimately home buyers and sellers are better off working with an experienced local Realtor who can offer the most accurate analysis possible.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re curious as to how to find a great Realtor, check out this link, <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/09/30/how-do-you-choose-a-realtor/"><span style="text-decoration:underline;"><span style="color:#000080;">How to Choose a Realtor</span></span>.</a></p>
<h6 class="zemanta-related-title" style="font-size:1em;">Related articles</h6>
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<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://gatorrealtors.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/are-zillow-zestimates-really-that-accurate/" target="_blank">Are Zillow Zestimate&#8217;s Really THAT Accurate?</a> (gatorrealtors.wordpress.com)</li>
<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2012/02/12/home-buying-how-to-get-started/" target="_blank">Home Buying- How to Get Started</a> (nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com)</li>
<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://johnmurphyreports.com/2012/02/06/is-zillow-continuing-to-mislead-real-estate-consumers-about-what-homes-are-for-sale/" target="_blank">Is Zillow Continuing to Mislead Real Estate Consumers About What Homes Are For Sale?</a> (johnmurphyreports.com)</li>
</ul>
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		<title>2012 – Buy a Home or Keep on Renting – What&#8217;s your Plan?</title>
		<link>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/10/24/2012-buy-a-home-or-keep-on-renting-whats-your-plan/</link>
		<comments>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/10/24/2012-buy-a-home-or-keep-on-renting-whats-your-plan/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Oct 2011 15:18:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>LarryT</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Buying a Home]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chapel Hill North Carolina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Durham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Triangle Park]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/?p=1358</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Rent versus Buy in the Chapel Hill / Durham area in 2012 <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/10/24/2012-buy-a-home-or-keep-on-renting-whats-your-plan/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com&#038;blog=7209929&#038;post=1358&#038;subd=nchomesbylarryt&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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<p>I&#8217;m sitting in my office now reviewing the latest market data from a variety of sources, including the raw local data my local MLS, Board of Realtors, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/profile/Larry-Tollen/" target="_blank">Zillow</a>, <a href="http://www.trulia.com/profile/LarryTollen/" target="_blank">Trulia</a> and others generate.</p>
<p>This is what I do regularly throughout each year, so that I can help my buyers and sellers get the information they need to make good, informed decisions.</p>
<p>Overall the market picture is mixed. While I’ve had an extremely good year, closing on average more than 3 transactions a month, I realize this is not at all indicative of the broader market. Studying all the data there are a few things that really stand out to me.</p>
<p>First and most important is the overall drop in inventory on the market. While it varies from county to county and definitely by price range, overall the areas where I do the majority of my work — Durham, <a class="zem_slink" title="Chapel Hill, North Carolina" href="http://www.townofchapelhill.org/" rel="homepage">Chapel Hill</a>, <a class="zem_slink" title="Carrboro, North Carolina" href="http://townofcarrboro.org/" rel="homepage">Carrboro</a>, Hillsborough, and Pittsboro — saw an approximately 15% reduction in inventory as compared to 2010. Raleigh and Wake county saw similar drops. This is likely due to a combination of: (a) owners deciding now wasn&#8217;t the time to go on the market and (b) many people choosing to rent their homes rather than sell. Again this is a macro view and the details can change significantly by price range and location. A drop in overall inventory is likely to keep prices stable.</p>
<p>The second thing that stands out for me from the data is that prices have come down this year again. There&#8217;s some real variance depending on location and price, but overall it appears as if prices throughout the Research Triangle are down by roughly 2%, which lends some credence to my thoughts that less overall inventory stabilizes prices.</p>
<p>The flip side is that the total number of closed transactions and the averages sales price throughout the area are both down in the 8-10% range. These statistics clearly say to me that if (as I expect) we see overall inventory rise in 2012 prices are likely to drop another 2-3% by this time next year, all things being equal. In the past couple of years I&#8217;ve been consistent in predicting that our market is unlikely to change in any substantive manner until 2014. Nothing I&#8217;m seeing as I review the data we have so far this year gives me any reason to change my thoughts.</p>
<p>While you might think this would depress me, it really doesn&#8217;t. I&#8217;ve been doing this a long time and this is hardly my first down market. I know the market will come back and I know Durham and Chapel Hill in particular will be back sooner than most areas. The combination of our great weather, educational facilities and opportunities, Research Triangle Park, our arts and food scenes, and overall reasonable real estate prices all combine to keep us among the <em>“undervalued hot markets”</em> in the country, so it&#8217;s hard to complain or be negative.</p>
<p>So; what you should do in the coming year if you&#8217;re either relocating or already living here: Do you rent or should you be looking at buying.</p>
<p>In general my advice to buyers is if you&#8217;re not going to be here at least four years, then renting probably makes more sense. However, if you believe you’re going to be here at least four years then it really may make sense to buy rather than rent, particularly given the incredibly low-interest rates which, like house prices, can not and will not stay this low forever.</p>
<p>Everyone is different and I would encourage anyone who is seriously thinking of buying to sit down with someone like myself who can help you lay out the numbers and figure out what may work best for you.</p>
<p>First you need to consider rent. Let&#8217;s say for a reasonable three bedroom home, it would cost you $1200 per month. So at the end of four years you&#8217;ll have spent $57,600. That&#8217;s it; the money is gone and basically you walk away.</p>
<p>In Durham you could expect to pay in the range of $150,000 for a comparable home. With 5% down you&#8217;d be financing $142,500. With an interest rate at 4.75% which is almost .75% above what rates are today and likely higher than they will be next year, the monthly mortgage payment would be $744. With property taxes and insurance added in you can figure $900 a month. At the end of four years you would owe the bank approximately $128,000 and would have spent a total of $43,200 in mortgage payments, taxes and insurance plus $7500 (5% down) plus another $5000+/- in closing costs for a total of $55,700 or roughly the same amount you&#8217;d spend in rent. I won&#8217;t spend time discussing any of the benefits of owning you might enjoy, I&#8217;m going to focus here strictly on the finances.</p>
<p>The question then becomes what will the property be worth when you go to sell it in 4 years. If we assume the house actually loses 5% in value we&#8217;d be selling it for $142,500 and with a 5% commission taken out you&#8217;d be left with $135,375. You owe the bank $128,000 so you get back $7,000+/- from the $55,700 you put in, bringing your total investment down to $48,325 to buy versus $57,600 in rent.</p>
<p>If you assume the house actually drops in value 10% then the total to “own versus rent” after four years works out to $55,450 so it&#8217;s a wash.</p>
<p>If the house is worth exactly what you paid for it four years later ($150,000), then buying would end up costing you $41,200 versus renting costing you $57,600.</p>
<p>I myself am expecting homes in this price range to actually increase in value over the next 4 years. If they were to increase by 5%, which is what I&#8217;m thinking is likely then the total amount spent buying would be $34,075 or almost half what it will cost you to rent.</p>
<p>Now this is just one example and depending on the price range you&#8217;re looking at and the amount you&#8217;re able to put down, the numbers may look different and I would encourage you to sit down with someone who can help you look at the specific numbers as they would apply to you.</p>
<p>In general it&#8217;s my experience that if your plans are to remain in one area four or more years, then renting is likely to be a much more expensive option than buying. Of course your landlord undoubtedly greatly appreciates you helping him or her buy the property and will, I&#8217;m sure, tell you this regularly <img src='http://s1.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>For more information check out part two of this post <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/1399/">HERE.</a></p>
<p>What are your thoughts?</p>
<h6 class="zemanta-related-title" style="font-size:1em;">Related articles</h6>
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		<title>ResearchTriangle Home Sales up 17 percent in third quarter- 2011.</title>
		<link>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/10/18/researchtriangle-home-sales-up-17-percent-in-third-quarter-2011/</link>
		<comments>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/10/18/researchtriangle-home-sales-up-17-percent-in-third-quarter-2011/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Oct 2011 17:52:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>LarryT</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Durham]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Durham, Orange and Wake County real estate sales data for the third quarter of 2011. Link to News and observer Article.  <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/10/18/researchtriangle-home-sales-up-17-percent-in-third-quarter-2011/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com&#038;blog=7209929&#038;post=1342&#038;subd=nchomesbylarryt&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2008-07-15_Durham_VA_Medical_Center.jpg"><img title="Durham VA Medical Center in Durham, North Caro..." src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bf/2008-07-15_Durham_VA_Medical_Center.jpg/300px-2008-07-15_Durham_VA_Medical_Center.jpg" alt="Durham VA Medical Center in Durham, North Caro..." width="300" height="200" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Image via Wikipedia</p></div>
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<p>Triangle MLS statistics are in and clearly indicate what I have known and been saying for the past couple of years, that real estate in the <a class="zem_slink" title="Durham, North Carolina" href="http://www.ci.durham.nc.us/" rel="homepage">Durham</a>, <a class="zem_slink" title="Chapel Hill, North Carolina" href="http://www.townofchapelhill.org/" rel="homepage">Chapel Hill</a> and <a class="zem_slink" title="Raleigh, North Carolina" href="http://www.raleighnc.gov/" rel="homepage">Raleigh North Carolina</a> area (collectively known as either the Triangle or <a class="zem_slink" title="Research Triangle" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_Triangle" rel="wikipedia">Research Triangle</a>) continues to attract national attention from Buyers, Builders, and Investors particularly those who live along either coast who often perceive the area as &#8220;undervalued&#8221; in terms of what we have to offer. Here&#8217;s a link to a recent article in the <a class="zem_slink" title="The News &amp; Observer" href="http://www.newsobserver.com/" rel="homepage">News &amp; Observer</a> with some details.<a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/10/18/1575732/triangle-home-sales-up-17-percent.html#storylink=addthis">Triangle home sales up 17 percent in third quarter &#8211; Real Estate News &#8211; NewsObserver.com</a>.</p>
<p>I can personally attest that I&#8217;m busier now helping buyers; than I was at the height of the market in 2006. My buyers are not limited to a particular demographic, they span a significant range in terms of age, price range, educational levels and experience.</p>
<p>Now I tend to focus almost exclusively on those interested in Durham, Chapel Hill / <a class="zem_slink" title="Carrboro, North Carolina" href="http://townofcarrboro.org/" rel="homepage">Carrboro</a> / Hillsborough (Orange County) and Pittsboro / Chatham County and less so on Raleigh and Wake and what my clients have all have discovered is that there&#8217;s a good selection of affordable homes in nearly every price range. What makes it particularly attractive (more than price and mortgage interest rates) is everything else that the area has to offer. Things like a nationally recognized food scene, an unbelievablly vibrant arts scene, great weather and lots of outdoor focused activities, great medical and educational facilities, (think Duke, UNC, <a class="zem_slink" title="North Carolina State University" href="http://www.ncsu.edu/" rel="homepage">NC State</a>, <a class="zem_slink" title="North Carolina Central University" href="http://www.nccu.edu/" rel="homepage">NCCU</a>), business friendly atmosphere and diversity.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve lived a lot of places in the past 50 plus years and with the exception of Philadelphia, very few have been as diverse as right here. This doesn&#8217;t mean we don&#8217;t have our problems, but in general we all get along better than other areas I&#8217;ve either lived in or visited. The Triangle is indeed a welcoming area. Trust me if you&#8217;re thinking of relocating you could do a whole heck of a lot worse than to come and check us out.</p>
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		<title>My Head is Exploding with Knowledge?</title>
		<link>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/my-head-is-exploding-with-knowledge/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Sep 2011 19:55:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>LarryT</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[I was sitting at a home inspection in Chapel Hill NC; for an out-of-state Buyer client a few days ago and was pondering the old maxim: Knowledge is Power. In today&#8217;s Internet driven, 24/7 news cycle world; if there&#8217;s one thing we don&#8217;t lack it&#8217;s the availability of information. I don&#8217;t know about you, but there are &#8230; <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/my-head-is-exploding-with-knowledge/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com&#038;blog=7209929&#038;post=1242&#038;subd=nchomesbylarryt&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was sitting at a home inspection in Chapel Hill NC; for an out-of-state Buyer client a f<a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/exploding_head.jpg"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-1244" title="exploding_head" src="http://nchomesbylarryt.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/exploding_head.jpg?w=750" alt=""   /></a>ew days ago and was pondering the old maxim: <a class="zem_slink" title="Scientia potentia est" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientia_potentia_est" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">Knowledge is Power</a>.</p>
<p>In today&#8217;s Internet driven, 24/7 news cycle world; if there&#8217;s one thing we don&#8217;t lack it&#8217;s the availability of information. I don&#8217;t know about you, but there are times I feel like I&#8217;m being inundated with information to the point where my head figuratively feels as if it&#8217;s exploding. If knowledge is indeed power, than why do I often find myself feeling this way? I believe the reason is that we so often confuse information for knowledge.</p>
<p>Perhaps this is why so many people struggle with making well-informed decisions regarding real estate, their confusing information with knowledge.</p>
<p>I spend at least a couple of hours each day on sites like <span style="color:#3366ff;"><a title="Zillow" href="http://www.zillow.com/profile/Larry-Tollen/" target="_blank"><span style="color:#3366ff;">Zillow</span></a></span>, <a href="http://www.trulia.com/myprofile/" target="_blank">Trulia</a>,  <span style="color:#3366ff;"><a href="http://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/Larry-Tollen_Chapel-Hill_NC_238464" target="_blank"><span style="color:#3366ff;">Realtor.com</span></a></span>, and others as part of my business and I am regularly amazed at the amount of misinformation I read on these sites by what I believe are good intentioned people. Those of us who engage in social media including myself seem compelled at times to offer online advice. Some good and quite a bit of it not so good. How anyone is to know which is good advice and which is not and which is tainted by the personal agenda of the writer?</p>
<p>The problem with the Internet is that anyone with an internet connection can write anything they want and the person reading it has very little idea of who wrote it and more importantly whether the person who wrote it knows anything about what their commenting on or not and yet I suspect that more often than not they either accept it as actual “knowledge.” Alternately they continue to seek additional input till they reach the <em>critical mass</em> and their heads too feel as if their exploding from all the contradictory input they&#8217;ve received.</p>
<p>When it comes to real estate, I think the single most important thing that needs to be considered is that it&#8217;s local. Contract laws and procedures vary from state to state. Markets vary widely not only between states but within a state as well. For this reason it&#8217;s absolutely essential for buyers and sellers to take the time to find an experienced agent to work with and whom they trust to help them, sift through and analyze all the so-called “facts” that are out there.</p>
<p>Real estate is a much tougher business than most realize. Fully 80% of all new Realtors don&#8217;t make it one year. Of the twenty percent that do last more than a year most do considerably less than a single transaction a month. Despite what most people think, the average Realtor earns roughly $40,000 a year in pre-tax income and taxes home less than $30,000 a year. It&#8217;s hard to make money let alone gain valuable experience when you aren&#8217;t successfully negotiating and closing sales. For this reason I have always suggested to buyers and sellers to interview your agent and do not simply take the first one you talk to. Your statistically more likely to get someone who won&#8217;t even be in the business a year or two from now than you are to get an agent who can truly assist you in accomplishing your real estate goals. You should ask any perspective agent how long they have been in the business. Ask them how many transactions they successfully closed this year and last year. <em>(If they are not closing at least 12 transactions a year, keep looking, 18-30 is what accomplished experienced agents average) </em>How many listings do they have now and if you&#8217;re selling where and how do they market? It&#8217;s completely reasonable to ask them to show you documentation to back up their claims. One of the good things about the Internet is you can easily check Realtors out. Google them and check out their presence on sites such as Realtor.com, Zillow and Trulia. (The Big 3 real estate sites) Have others recommended them on these sites? Do they blog? Take a look and see. Website(s) take a look. Understand we do work in a digital age and if your agent isn&#8217;t embracing the Internet, then honestly you&#8217;re either working with a neophyte, an unsuccessful agent who can&#8217;t afford to, or an experienced agent nearing the end of their career. I&#8217;m sure I&#8217;ll take some flack for that last statement, but it remains true.</p>
<p>Trying to make sense of the market and figuring out whether you should buy or sell a home is an extremely important emotionally and financially. If you were sick you&#8217;d want the best doctor you could find, if you were going to court; the best attorney who specialized in cases like yours and when considering what may very well be the most important financial decision of your life; you want an experienced local Realtor who can help you make sense of your local market and who will be there for you throughout the transaction and long after it&#8217;s over. Their out there, you just need to take your time and ask the right questions and when you find them, you&#8217;ll be glad you did.</p>
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		<title>Where is the Real Estate Market Going Next?</title>
		<link>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/08/16/where-is-the-real-estate-market-going-next/</link>
		<comments>http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/08/16/where-is-the-real-estate-market-going-next/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Aug 2011 15:31:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>LarryT</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Local News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business and Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Real Estate isn&#8217;t national, it&#8217;s local and different areas are going to be affected differently. The single most important factor in real estate is supply and demand. If I see inventory rates climbing then it&#8217;s a clear indicator that prices will be coming down, if inventory rates remain stable then prices will remain stable and/or &#8230; <a href="http://nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com/2011/08/16/where-is-the-real-estate-market-going-next/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nchomesbylarryt.wordpress.com&#038;blog=7209929&#038;post=1234&#038;subd=nchomesbylarryt&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a class="zem_slink" title="Real estate" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate" rel="wikipedia">Real Estate</a> isn&#8217;t national, it&#8217;s local and different areas are going to be affected differently.</p>
<p align="left">The single most important factor in real estate is supply and demand. If I see inventory rates climbing then it&#8217;s a clear indicator that prices will be coming down, if inventory rates remain stable then prices will remain stable and/or will begin to rise.</p>
<p align="left">What most economists fail to consider when issuing proclamations regarding the real estate market is that unless you&#8217;re either able and willing to move back in with your parents and essentially be a mooch or are comfortable being homeless and I don&#8217;t believe either of these are options people choose willingly, then you&#8217;re going to have to pay to live somewhere.</p>
<p align="left">This inevitably leads to the following questions: Where do I want to live? How long do I believe I&#8217;m going to live there? Do I want to pay rent and buy the house for my landlord or would I rather invest in myself?</p>
<p align="left">The housing market isn&#8217;t all that complicated, and as I&#8217;ve said and written many times before, it&#8217;s all about location. Most of the Earth&#8217;s land is either uninhabitable (think Arctic and Antarctic regions, the Sahara and Gobi deserts, Siberia, etc) or undesirable for various reasons such as weather conditions, lack of employment etc. All you need do is look at a population map of the US for example and you&#8217;ll see roughly 75% of our population lives on less than 20% of the our land mass. In area where there are employment opportunities I would expect real estate prices to remain stable for the most parts, while in areas where the employment opportunities are disappearing I would anticipate homes prices to drop accordingly. This is why I believe that it&#8217;s critical to take a long-term perspective and invest in education so that future generations have the skill sets they need to compete in the global job market. As long as populations rates continue to climb the housing market will inevitably rebound.</p>
<p align="left">Today <a class="zem_slink" title="CNNMoney.com" href="http://money.cnn.com/" rel="homepage">CNN Money</a> writes <a href="http://alturl.com/drytt" target="_blank">“ Buying is cheaper than renting in most U.S. Cities”</a> and as the article points out paying your mortgage can be considered forced savings.</p>
<p align="left">The article suggests potential buyers ask themselves the following questions:</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p align="left">1. How Long Do You Plan To Stay?</p>
</li>
<li>
<p align="left">2. Do You Have Enough Cash On Hand?</p>
</li>
<li>
<p align="left">3. Can You Cover All <a class="zem_slink" title="Owner-occupier" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owner-occupier" rel="wikipedia">Homeownership</a> Costs?</p>
</li>
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<p align="left">4. Can You Claim The Tax Advantages Of Homeownership?</p>
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</ol>
<p align="left">When I first meet with potential Buyers I also encourage them to answer a set of similar questions and surprise some when I suggest they might not want to buy. Buying a home isn&#8217;t for everyone in every circumstance, but if you are working and plan to remain in one area for at least the next five years, I honestly believe there is no better time to buy a home and that it&#8217;s an excellent investment regardless of what any economist may have to say about the matter.</p>
<p align="left">By the way for any economists reading this, how many of you are renting your home and is it by choice?</p>
<h6 class="zemanta-related-title" style="font-size:1em;">Related articles</h6>
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<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/natalie-pace/when-will-real-estate-rec_b_917834.html">Natalie Pace: When Will Real Estate Recover?</a> (huffingtonpost.com)</li>
</ul>
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