Pending Home Sales Stabilize, Remain Above Year-Ago Levels

Below is a copy of an article relaeased on February 2, 2010 in the Washington Post:

Pending home sales have leveled from a market swing driven by response to the home buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, increased 1.0 percent to 96.6 from 95.6 in November, and remains 10.9 percent above December 2008 when it was 87.1. In November, the monthly index had fallen by 16.4 percent from surging activity in preceding months.

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

Existing-home sales for January will be reported February 26 and the next Pending Home Sales Index will be on March 4; release times are 10 a.m. EST.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 2.3 percent to 76.1 in December and is 14.9 percent higher than December 2008. In the Midwest the index increased 5.2 percent to 86.9 and is 8.7 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 2.2 percent to an index of 98.4, and are 5.5 percent higher than December 2008. In the West the index fell 3.8 percent to 119.9 but is 18.6 percent above a year ago.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said it’s important to recognize how the tax credit is skewing market data. “There are easily understood swings in contract activity as buyers respond to a tax credit that was expiring and was then extended and expanded,” he said. “These swings are masking the underlying trend, which is a broad improvement over year-ago levels. December activity was the fifth highest monthly tally in two years.

Tips for a Stress Free Home

The place where you feel happy.” In an interview in Esquire magazine, that’s how novelist Salman Rushdie described “home.” After a busy day or a long time away, most of us look forward to just being home, where we can be ourselves and surround ourselves with the familiar.

Many people, however, have trouble relaxing at home, especially where there are piles of clutter and unfinished projects at every turn. Sometimes, home can be a place that reminds us of what we haven’t gotten around to doing. If you sometimes feel that way, perhaps it’s time to make some residential resolutions. The New Year isn’t just about losing weight or quitting smoking. It can be about finding time to turn your home into more of a haven.

“If you take time to make your home the way you want it, you don’t have as many things hanging over your head, distracting you, getting in the way,” says Jennifer Linnig, a home organization specialist who lives and blogs in Cudahy, Wis. “Being organized frees the mind,” she says. “It lets you focus on what really matters.”

Paula Constable says being organized is a way to create a comfortable environment. “It’s not about perfection,” says Constable, of Johnson Creek, Wis., who has been a residential organizer for more than a decade, specializing in moms and families. “The mission is to make life smoother and less stressful.”

The following tips will help you turn your home into a stress-free haven.

1. Be responsible. Get serious about recycling by setting up a sorting center, perhaps in your garage to help you stay on top of things. Start by finding out what the guidelines for recycling are in your community, then clear a space, find appropriate containers and make them accessible all in one spot. Label them so that recycling becomes easy for everyone to do.

2. Be frugal. Turn some of your unwanted gifts and household items into cash by selling them on eBay and Craigslist. “There are so many things that we basically are just storing in our homes,” Constable says. “We don’t use them or need them, but they are still around. Why not turn these things into cash?”

3. Be generous. Donate your unused household goods to Goodwill or other charitable groups. Don’t forget about the Habitat for Humanity ReStore, which accepts usable building materials that can be sold to finance more building projects. Be sure to check out www.freecycle.org, a sharing website that allows you to be both frugal and generous by posting items and giving them away to people who have a real need.

4. Be tidy. Make this the year you set up a system for mail that comes into your home. Stay on top of bill-paying, too. Constable suggests three choices for every piece of mail. “First, you can throw it out; second, take action on it (such as following up or making a payment); or, third, file it. As for a system for paying bills, she suggests making a master list and listing when each bill is due each month, how it gets paid (online or by mail) and what a typical amount is. That way you know what is due when and you won’t be caught by surprise. It also allows someone else to take over bill-paying duties if necessary.

5. Be discerning. Clutter and overcrowding are most often the result of having too many things rather than inadequate storage space. If you resist impulse buying and don’t buy something unless you really need it, you can keep your possession count as low as possible. As often as possible, try to make do with what you own.

6. Be inclusive. Involve your family in the home organization process. Getting kids involved teaches skills and responsibility. Linnig suggests setting a timer or playing a fun song when children are helping. “You can do anything for 10 or 15 minutes,” she says. Often when kids start to make progress on straightening up their rooms or putting away toys, they ignore the time limit and keep going until the job is done, taking pride in what they have accomplished.

7. Be mindful. You want to have a sense of safety and comfort at home, which can, in part, be achieved by having working smoke detectors, a carbon monoxide detector and a radon meter (in areas where radon is a concern). Taking safety a step further, consider replacing candles with alternatives such as scented globes or battery-operated flickering pillars that help create the same mood.

8. Be health-conscious. When tackling home improvement projects, educate yourself about products that have less of an impact on your home environment, such as low-VOC paint and eco-friendly carpet.

9. Be aware. Energy costs are going up, and environmental awareness is an important topic these days. You can do something about it. Obvious changes include replacing incandescent light bulbs with fluorescents, using a setback thermostat and buying Energy Star appliances when possible.

The above came from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel(c) 2010.

December Sales Statisitics for Orange, Durham and Chatham Counties and Year End Summary

Realizing just how tough a year 2009 was for real estate across the country, the numbers shown in the attached pages show that the market in Durham, Chapel Hill, Carrboro and Chatham County fared well overall.

This isn’t to downplay the roughly 8-9% drop in overall sales year to date in 2009 versus 2010 but a careful examination of the data confirms both the underlying desirability of this area as well as the relative strength in terms of values.  See market data pages below:

2009 Year End Review Chapel Hill- Carrboro

2009 Year End Review Durham

2009 Year End Review Orange County

2009 Year End Review Chatham County

As an example: when you look at the Durham statistics you will see that overall inventory of properties on the market available for sale in December 2009 was actually down nearly 14.5% from 2008. In addition both the Median and Average sales prices held steady through 2009. Even the length of time it took properties to sell was basically unchanged with the average property selling in just under 3 months. Durham in particular continued to garner positive national attention with publications such as Newsweek, Forbes and others specifically noting Durham in their annual “Best Places to Live / Work / Buy” lists. Other national publications rated the Triangle area in general as being an area that stood out as one “least affected by the national real estate problems and likely to rebound most quickly.’

A look at the Chapel Hill- Carrboro stats shows a similar picture. Again the Average sales price remained relatively unchanged in 2009 versus 2008 and the Median sales price actually went up almost 3%. Like Durham available inventory for sale dropped in December 2009 from December 2008 and while taking a little longer to sell on average than Durham the average days on market still came in just a little over 3 months.

The statistics for Orange County which includes the towns of Chapel Hill and Carrboro essentially mirror those for Chapel Hill and Carrboro though the overall average price of a property drops significantly once you move outside of the Chapel Hill- Carrboro school district. The school system in Chapel Hill and Carrboro is still considered to be a major selling point and the average price of a home sold within this school system bears this out.

Chatham County is a little trickier for me to analyze. As I’ve written previously Chatham is an exceptionally large county and our local MLS system doesn’t’ break out the statistics for specific areas within Chatham. Much of the county is very rural and is of no interest to my clients and I only work in a small portion of the county running north from Pittsboro along the 15-501 corridor. I’ve posted the data and you can draw from it what you will, but based on my own personal first hand experience I feel that the Northeastern quadrant of Chatham where I work is much more similar to the data I’ve reviewed for Durham and Orange Counties than these numbers might indicate. The closer you get to Chapel Hill the more similar the overall picture becomes though Buyers are getting considerably more bang for their buck in terms of lot size, age, and features offered.

Looking ahead I see 2010 shaping up to be very similar to 2009 and I am not expecting to see a significant change in overall values or in the number of properties sold. While there are economists predicting that we should begin seeing some slight increase in sales and ion sale prices in the second half of 2010, I remain unconvinced of these predictions at this time. By the same token I am unaware of anything on the horizon that will cause prices to drop in any meaningful way with the exception of homes listed for $700,000 and above. This segment of the market has been the slowest overall and Sellers who need to sell will likely have to do so at a discount.

For Buyers I feel the market is at the bottom, prices have remained essentially unchanged for the past 30 months and I expect them to remain where they are through the remainder of this year. Interest rates are at or near historic lows and for those with good credit, who are committed to remaining in the area for the next 4-7 years now is the time to buy. For those who can put a property under contract before April 30^th, federal tax credits are still available, which only makes a purchase that much more attractive.

New Tighter FHA requirements will affect many First Time Home Buyers

See attached article. While those with good credit and good income to debt ratios will still be able to take advantage of what for many is the best mortgage option available, many who are on the edge may find themselves shut out of what was typically their best option.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/19/real_estate/fha_loan_requirements/index.htm

Triangle home sales jump 43 percent in December :: WRAL.com

Interesting and timely data regarding home sales in the Triangle.

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via Triangle home sales jump 43 percent in December :: WRAL.com.

Triangle home sales jump 43 percent in December :: WRAL.com

Interesting and timely data regarding home sales in the Triangle.

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via Triangle home sales jump 43 percent in December :: WRAL.com.

Orange and Durhamn County Bike Map Overlays

Attached are links to two of the best maps I’ve found showing the dedicated bike trails in Durham and Orange Counties (North Carolina) overlayed on top of Google Maps. I’ve found these very helpful when looking for homes for buyers wanting easy access to the trails.

http://nicomachus.net/maps/durham/

http://nicomachus.net/maps/orange/

Market Statistics for Orange, Durham and Chatham Counties 2009

Below is the latest sales data broken out by specific Counties as well as a report specific to the Chapel Hill / Carrboro school district. Click on the links to open each report up. The final year end data will be posted in the later part of January once the final numbers are in and compiled.

Overall the data looks surprisingly good, we’re not seeing an over abundance of inventory on the market, nor have the days a property is on the market before it goes under contract changed dramatically. Prices have for the most part held steady with nominal changes either up or down. My expectations are for this trend to continue into 2010 with prices likely to tick ever so slightly upwards.Please note I work throughout Orange and Durham Counties and only in the northern most part of Chatham County. (From Pittsboro north) Because of limitations in the way Chatham County is parsed by the local Multiple Listing Service I am unable at this time to break out the portion of Chatham County I work in. Chatham County is one of the largest counties in the state and most of it is rural and not reflective of the area I work in which serves in large part as a bedroom community to Chapel Hill, Raleigh and Durham. Chapel Hill – Carrboro Real Estate 2009 – Jan – NovChatham County Real Estate Data 2009 Jan – NovDurham County Real Estate 2009 Jan – NovOrange County Real Estate 2009 – Jan – NovIf you would like a more detailed analysis on a particular area / neighborhood that you’re interested in, please call or email me to discuss your needs. I’m happy to provide much more specific information on a area for my clients.

Here’s some timely real estate news as well as a calander of local events here in the Chapel Hill – Durham area. Put another $500,000 plus under contract yesterday and spent the morning at a breakfast meeting with Cogressman David Price getting …updated on what’s happening “on the Hill”

Click the link below to open up newsletter

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U.S. Economy: Home Prices Rise, Consumer Confidence Declines Share

By Courtney Schlisserman and Shobhana Chandra July 28 (Bloomberg) — A gauge of U.S. house prices posted its first monthly gain in three years, providing some solace to consumers shaken by rising joblessness. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index rose 0.5 percent in May from the prior month, the first gain since July 2006 and biggest since May of that year, the group said today in New York. A Conference Board report showed consumer confidence this month fell more than forecast. Stabilization of the worst housing market since the 1930s and a rebound in stocks may bring an end this quarter to the record slump in household wealth. Even so, Americans are likely to boost savings and limit spending as unemployment is projected to top 10 percent by early 2010, restraining any recovery from the deepest recession in five decades. “The fact that home prices may be finding some semblance of stability is good news that things are not likely to get worse,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Folks are still concerned about their jobs” and “the loss of housing wealth is going to weigh on consumer spending for years to come.” Stocks fell and Treasury securities rose after the worse- than-projected confidence report. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was down 0.5 percent to 976.75 at 11:00 a.m. in New York. The yield in the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.67 percent from 3.72 percent late yesterday. Less Confidence The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped to 46.6, a second consecutive decline, following a reading of 49.3 in June, the New York-based research group said. The figure reached a record low of 25.3 in February. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index was down 17.1 percent from May 2008, less than projected and the smallest year-over- year drop in nine months. Economists forecast the index would drop 17.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 32 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from declines of 17.5 percent to 18.3 percent. Compared with a month earlier, 14 cities showed price gains, led by a 4.1 percent jump in Cleveland and a 1.9 percent increase in Dallas. The price figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes. Adjusted for seasonal changes, the index fell 0.2 percent in May, the smallest monthly decline since February 2007. Signs of ‘Bottom’ “If you’re looking for a bottom, there’s a lot of good stuff here,” Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index, said on a Bloomberg Radio interview. “If you’re looking for a real recovery, it’s going to take some time.” The report buttresses other measures that have shown a deceleration in price declines. The Federal Housing Finance Agency said last week that its purchase-only price index was down 5.6 percent in May from a year earlier, the smallest annual drop in 10 months. The FHFA index is a national measure that tracks houses bought with mortgages purchased by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and excludes many of the foreclosure sales and properties bought with non-conventional mortgages. In addition to being limited to 20 areas, the S&P/Case-Shiller report also includes distressed properties and those bought with non-conventional loans such as jumbo mortgages. The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions decreased to 23.4 from 25 the prior month, reflecting deteriorating perceptions on job availability. The gauge of expectations for the next six months fell to 62 from 65.5 as Americans grew more pessimistic about jobs and income prospects. Other Measures Today’s figures corroborate other reports. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment declined in July for the first time in five months as surging unemployment and stagnant wages shook households. The economy has lost 6.5 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, making it the biggest employment slump of any downturn in the last eight decades. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the unemployment rate will exceed 10 percent by the first quarter of next year from 9.5 percent in June, the highest level since 1983. Declines in home prices and stocks cut household net worth by $13.9 trillion through the first quarter, according to figures from the Federal Reserve. The need to rebuild tattered finances has prompted Americans to limit spending and boost savings. “We are preparing for this recovery to take a while to pick up steam,” Frits van Paasschen, chief executive officer of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc., said in a conference call with analysts last week. The third-largest U.S. lodging company’s second-quarter earnings beat analysts’ estimates. Fed Chairman Bernanke said July 22 he cannot “guarantee by any means” that declines in home prices are over “but we have seen a few positive indicators.” The central bank has established a $1.25 trillion program to purchase securities backed by home loans in an effort to put a floor under the housing market and lower borrowing costs. To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net; Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 28, 2009 11:11 EDT